Haiti - Weather : Forecast for the next hurricane season
The hurricane season forecast for the University of Colorado indicates that the next hurricane season will be slightly below average: 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ with winds greater than 178 km/h). The main reason is the continuation of the weakness of the El Nino phenomenon.
"We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightlybelow-normalactivity. The current weak El Niño event appears likely to persist and perhaps even strengthen this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are slightly below normal, and the farNorth Atlantic isanomalously cool. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is belowits long-term average. We anticipate aslightlybelow-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastalresidents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
Information obtained through March 2019indicates that the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season willhave activity slightly below the 1981-2010 average. We estimate that 2019 will have about 5 hurricanes (averageis 6.4), 13 named storms (average is 12.1), 50 named storm days (averageis 59.4), 16 hurricane days (averageis 24.2), 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.7) and 4 major hurricane days (average is 6.2). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 90 percent of the long-period average.
We expect Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2019 to be approximately 75 percent of their long-term averages. This forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 29 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. For the first time, we are also using a statistical/dynamical model based off of data from the ECMWF System 5 as an additional forecast guidance tool," explains the University of Colorado
