The Haitian economy experienced a 7th year of negative growth in 2025, aggravated by deteriorating socio-political and security conditions. Agricultural production, already plagued by structural deficits, suffered in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-2026 (October-December 2025) from the negative impacts of Hurricane Melissa in late October and the decline in the textile sector, a major employer, which saw a significant contraction in its workforce, falling from 26,326 in December 2024 to fewer than 25,000 in December 2025.

Exports of goods and services (US$114.72 million) fell by 4.85% in the first quarter, following the slowdown in activity in the textile sector. Meanwhile, imports reached US$1.2 billion (US$1,241.44 million), an increase of 4.57% compared to the previous quarter. The contrasting performance of exports versus imports led to a widening of the trade deficit by 5.64%.

The macroeconomic outlook in Haiti remains closely tied to… The restoration of a secure environment is an essential prerequisite for the sustainable resumption of economic activity and the normal functioning of production and distribution channels. In this regard, the implementation of the customs facilitation Memorandum of Understanding concluded between the tax authorities and certain private sector partners is a positive sign for the revival of investment and economic recovery.

The targeted tax exemption on imported raw materials and capital goods necessary for domestic production should contribute to better cost control and improved business competitiveness, with potential knock-on effects on growth and employment.

This internal fragility has been compounded by an uncertain international environment intensified by the conflict in the Middle East that began at the end of February 2026. The adverse consequences of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which allows the passage of 20% of global maritime energy product traffic, risk leading to an increase in the prices of these products as well as other raw materials on the international market. This situation suggests International inflationary pressures are a concern, given the cross-cutting role of these products in the global economy.

Considering Haiti's heavy reliance on petroleum product imports, this situation could lead to an increase in the import bill and exert further pressure on the exchange rate and the general price level, potentially jeopardizing the disinflationary trend observed since November 2025. Indeed, the inflation rate fell by 1.5 percentage points compared to December 2025, reaching 23.5% in January 2026. However, recent developments in the international context, if they persist, could reverse this trend in the coming quarter.

Faced with this climate of uncertainty, the BRH plans to take the necessary measures to mitigate the impact of this adverse situation on economic activity. Thus, the monetary authorities' priorities will focus on decisions aimed at maintaining the Macroeconomic and financial stability. The Central Bank will maintain its policy of reducing excess liquidity from BRH bonds, while continuing its interventions in the foreign exchange market to smooth exchange rate fluctuations should there be a surge in demand for US dollars in the economy. Furthermore, the BRH intends to be a key player in efforts to revive economic activity by supporting key sectors of the economy. This is evidenced by initiatives aimed at revising the pro-growth program to incorporate a regional approach and programs designed to boost Haitian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly those led by women, such as Booster PME III.

Download the full BRH report (PDF in French, 19 pages) :

https://www.haitilibre.com/docs/Note-sur-la-Politique-Moneetaire-premier-trimestre-de-lexercice-fiscal-2025-2026-octobre-decembre-2025-.pdf

HL/ HaitiLibre